Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook/Water Safety Message

The following Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook/Water Safety message was issued by the Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority (ABCA) today at 2:30 p.m.

Warm temperatures and up to 10 millimetres of rain, risk of minor flooding.

Watershed residents are reminded to stay away from waterways.

An approaching warm front is to be followed by rainfall of up to 10 millimetres to the Ausable Bayfield watershed area over the next 36 hours. 

The forecasted rain (starting December 16, 2024) and temperatures remaining above freezing over the next several days will melt most of the snowpack. Snow survey data collected by ABCA staff over the last three weeks has shown some areas with significant levels of snow-water equivalent present in the existing snowpack. Areas with less snow accumulated may still experience high flows and flooding, to low-lying areas, due to flows associated with snowmelt from upstream. 

Based on the current weather predictions, river-flow forecast models indicate that levels in watercourses will quickly rise beginning this evening (December 16), peaking on Tuesday, December 17 and Wednesday, December 18. While many watercourses are expected to exceed their banks, major flooding is not anticipated at this time, with flooded areas limited to the low-lying undeveloped flood plains. The potential extent of flooding will depend on the actual temperatures and rainfall. 

Municipal staff should monitor local drainage problem areas where snow conditions may have covered catch basins.

Residents are reminded that all ice should be considered unsafe. In addition, please use caution near all watercourses. Slippery and unstable streambanks, streambanks hidden by drifted snow, and extremely cold water temperatures are creating additional hazards.

This message will remain in effect until 9:00 a.m. on Thursday, December 19, 2024, unless otherwise updated. The ABCA will continue to monitor watershed conditions and will provide an update if required.

Details also available at www.abca.ca.